en-us http://www.indianagrain.com/blog Wed, 10 Mar 2010 10:27:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/soybean-crop-estimate-cut The initial reaction among many traders to today's USDA crop report is that the data is bearish to corn and wheat and friendly to soybeans. The reduction in corn was on par with estimates, but few expected the sharp reduction in exports (100 million bushels). Earlier reports suggested that exports would be reduced by 50 million bushels not by 100 million. The USDA estimated 2009-10 U.S. crop production at 13.131 million bushels vs. the average analysts estimate of 13.081 and its January estimate of 13.151 million. In addition, the U.S. corn yield was pegged at 164.9 bushels per acre compared to the average analysts estimate of 164.5 and its previous estimate of 165.2 bushels per acre. For soybeans, the USDA estimated U.S. 200-10 production at 3.359 billion bushels vs. the average analysts estimate of 3.35 billion and its January estimate of 3.361. Also, the USDA estimated U.S. soybean yield at 44 bushels per acre compared to the average analysts estimate of 43.8 and its January estimate of 44.0 bushels per acre. Wed, 10 Mar 2010 00:20:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/cme-buys-into-mexico-s-bmv-exchange The Mexican Stock Exchange, or BMV, and the CME Group have entered into a strategic alliance that includes an order routing agreement for derivatives products. CME Group has acquired about 1.9 percent of the BMV’s outstanding shares under the terms of the equity portion of the deal for $17 million. The BMV’s Control Trust, moreover, has granted CME Group the right to nominate a member of the Mexican exchange’s board of directors. The exchanges plan to work together in several areas, such as “the development of new products, marketing, client training and a clearing agreement that will allow each company to clear the trades of the other’s clients,” the BMV said. “Latin America is a key market for CME Group,” CME Group executive chairman Terry Duffy said. “We are pleased to announce this new partnership with BMV which furthers our global strategy to offer customers increased access to our products while, at the same time, allowing BMV to use the CME Globex trading network to increase distribution of their products in North America,” Duffy added. The order routing arrangement is scheduled to take effect in 2011, giving BMV clients access to CME Group’s benchmark derivatives contracts, including interest rates, foreign currencies, equity indexes, energy, ls and agricultural commodities. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:53:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/e-trade-sued-for-100-million Actress Lindsay Lohan has filed a lawsuit against E*Trade for $100 million, according to Reuters. In papers filed in Monday in Nassau County, New York, the Mean Girls star claims that one of the online brokerage’s recent TV ads featuring a ditzy, “milkaholic” baby girl named Lindsay is modeled after her and improperly invoked her “likeness, name, characterization, and personality” without permission, violating her right to privacy. Lohan is suing for $50 million in compensatory damages and an additional $50 million in exemplary damages. She also demanded that E*Trade stop running the ad. Calls for comment to lawyers on both sides have not been returned. The ad, which aired during the Super Bowl on Feb. 7, is part of a campaign featuring smart-aleck toddlers who play the market. In 2007, Lohan was ordered to spend a day in jail, undergo an alcohol education program, and spend three years on probation after admitting to drunk driving and cocaine possession. Source: Reuters Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:27:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/will-down-days-for-grains-continue- Grain prices fell once again Tuesday, ahead of this morning's USDA update on foreign and domestic grain production. Apart from crop report suspicions, corn fell for a fifth day on speculation a stronger dollar may weaken demand for commodities. It should be noted that the USDA doesn't usually update prior-year production levels for U.S. grains this late. That has added some volatility and uncertainty to trading. Of course, the biggest story may not be reserved for corn, beans, or wheat. In fact, as we at Indiana Grain have been discussing a lot lately, sugar is a product that has the attention of many traders today. The price of sugar has continued to plummet and is now nearly 30% below the highs it reached in late January. Increases in supply from India and Thailand helped drive prices down. Tue, 09 Mar 2010 23:19:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/china-s-february-exports-climb-45-7- China's exports grew strongly in February in a new sign of a rebound in global demand, government figures showed Wednesday. Exports were up 45.7 percent in February over a year earlier, the Chinese customs agency reported, beating forecasts by private sector analysts of 35 to 40 percent growth. Imports also were up strongly, rising by 44.7 percent in February from a year earlier, the agency said, reflecting China's revival from the global economic crisis. China's trade figures can be distorted by the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, which falls at varying times in January and February. Combining data from the two months, which analysts say produces a more accurate picture of trade conditions, shows exports surged 31.4 percent in the January-February period over the same time last year. Source: Wall Street Journal Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:40:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/paulson-soros-tudor-jones-have-gold-on-the-brain Both John Paulson and George Soros are investing in NovaGold, a mining operation focused on discovering gold. NovaGold announced it would issue stock to Soros. His purchase came after NovaGold made a similar statement that it was considering selling stock in itself to Paulson. Soros, 80, had called a market bubble in gold in January. But his Soros Fund Management bought up stock in SPDR Gold Trust, an exchange traded gold fund which Paulson, via his Paulson & Co., is a big stakeholder. Soros upped his stake in the ETF on March 1. Paulson has been dubbed a “gold bug,” but David Einhorn and Paul Tudor Jones are also bullish on gold. Paulson & Co., headquartered in New York, has a fund dedicated to investing in gold. Finding a hedge fund manager on par with Soros or Paulson is a tall order. Soros, a billionaire, is a hedge fund legend whose 1992 currency play netted him $1 billion. Paulson made a successful bet against sub-prime mortgage, turning Paulson & Co. into a $10 billion hedge fund into a $30 billion investment powerhouse in 2008. Source: Bloomberg, AP, Hedge Fund Industry Newswire Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:34:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/china-not-sold-on-gold China's chief currency regulator said the world's most populous nation would attract more capital inflows this year, partly reflecting expectations of a stronger yuan, but he left the market none the wiser as to when Beijing might let the currency resume its rise. "The U.S. Treasury market is the world's largest government bond market. Our foreign exchange reserves are huge, so you can imagine that the U.S. Treasury market is an important one to us," Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), told a news conference. The exact composition of China's reserves, the world's largest, is a state secret and the subject of intense scrutiny by global investors aware that, with such large sums at stake, even marginal portfolio shifts have the potential to move markets. Speaking during the annual session of parliament, Yi expressed the hope that China's presence in the U.S. Treasury market would not become a political football. China, he stressed, was not in the game of short-term currency speculation. "It is market investment behavior, and I don't want it to be politicized," he said. "We are a responsible investor, and we can surely achieve a win-win result in the process of investing." Yi dampened hopes of gold bugs that China might be itching to add to the 1,054 tonnes of the l in its reserves. On a 30-year horizon gold was not a great investment, he said, and China would simply drive up prices if it piled into the market. Source: WSJ, BusinessWeek, CNBC Tue, 09 Mar 2010 00:29:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/traders-look-to-wednesday-s-crop-report Traders are eagerly awaiting Wednesday's supply and demand report and 2009 crop revisions. The market traded both sides of unchanged throughout the session Monday and is merely "marking time" until Wednesday morning's U.S. Department of Agriculture report, said Arlan Suderman, analyst for Farm Futures. March corn ended down 1/4 cent to $3.64 1/2 per bushel, and May corn settled down 1/2 cent to $3.75. Deferred contracts, including December corn, ended up slightly. Many are expecting a cut to the 2009 crop but a corresponding decrease in demand when the USDA releases new supply and demand estimates Wednesday. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. While traders are mostly expecting little change to the balance sheet in the report, the USDA's March crop revision is unusual, and the uncertainty is underpinning the market, some analysts say. Source: USDA, Farm Futures Mon, 08 Mar 2010 00:01:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/cme-look-for-corn-oil-soybean-gold-volatility-trading We at Indiana Grain found this gem of information from the Wall Street Journal worth noting this morning. Our friends at the CME Group are moving ahead with a plan to launch fear gauge volatility contracts in many of the products that have become increasingly popular to trade, including corn and soybeans. As volatility instruments take hold in a variety of markets, the timing couldn't be better to move forward with this plan. The decision comes as a result of a license deal with the Chicago Board Options Exchange. "I think the idea's going to be welcomed by a lot of markets," Phil Flynn, a Chicago-based energy market expert tells the Wall Street Journal. "The VIX formula CBOE has created for different indices has proven to be a valuable trading tool." The CME plans to "launch an initial five contracts" by the middle of 2011. The contracts will utilize the methodology developed by CBOE, which will also develop new underlying indexes. According to the WSJ, the CME and the CBOE have "tentatively" agreed that the first new products could include crude oil, corn, soybeans and gold. Source: The Wall Street Journal Sun, 07 Mar 2010 23:52:00 CST http://www.indianagrain.com/blog/record-sugar-harvest-ahead- We at Indiana Grain are learning that Thailand may do its part to contribute to one of the largest sugar harvests on record. According to multiple published reports, Thailand may harvest a record sugar crop next year after farmers boosted planting, enabling them to benefit from global prices set to advance to an all-time high - that's from the Thai Sugar Millers Corp. Output from the world’s second-largest exporter may total 7.8 million metric tons in the year from November, said Vibul Panitvong, executive chairman of the company that groups Thailand’s 46 millers. Raw-sugar prices may reach 40 cents next year on low global inventories and strong demand, Vibul said. A surge in prices would benefit exporters including Brazil, the largest shipper, while boosting costs for buyers such as India, the world’s second most-populous nation. The South Asian country will probably import about 4 million tons next year after purchasing as much as 7 million tons this year, Vibul said. Thailand’s “cane production is likely to reach a record” next year, beating the 74 million tons recorded in the 2002-2003 crop year, Vibul said in an interview.